[pdimitar]

I am not an economy expert by any stretch. Just going to share my take.

Growth cannot go forever due to these factors I observed:

1. More and more wealth seems to be captured and locked away somewhere while the rest of the populace is left to having to cope with globally dwindling redistributable capital.

2. Population isn't even declining everywhere but I've read several times here in HN that white people in first-world countries procreate less and less. Reasons can be a lot and my anecdotal evidence is that the cost of a basic life and some small extra affordances goes up every year. Families get more and more conservative on their spends and/or jobs. Many people here in Eastern Europe just decide to live on welfare and half-day crappy jobs somewhere but at least these jobs aren't stressful and don't require 2-3 hours in traffic every day. When you do the math such a way of life nets them 70-80% of what they would otherwise make so their choice is really quite logical. In these conditions the economy stagnates and companies get desperate for good staff while the government couldn't care less.

3. The population declines at places because people view raising kids as a huge financial and stress investment and not as the life-fulfilling purpose that raising kids is usually viewed as. This is mostly related to how much time is needed for a young person these days to actually start contributing to their raising (or new) family. Many people are just scared if they are going to be able to be financially stable for 25-30 years in the future. Others like myself are just burned out.

4. The economy gradually seems to be taken over by the very classic breed of venture investors that don't give a hoot about organically growing your customer base or actually taking care of your employees. Even in a presumably more conservative market like Europe, I see this more and more. Can we even discuss growth if, even against all odds, your company becomes hugely successful BUT has to return the investments tenfold? Again, this is a captured wealth going to somebody else's pocket (and they don't seem to be interested in redistributing it).

---

I could be gravely mistaken and be a victim of living in a filter bubble. Of course.

But it's what I am seeing periodically and it worries me. People just don't care that much for making kids or looking for jobs since it all just guarantees suffering and sacrifices and nothing much else.

Many elderly people tell me that they regularly chat with their kids (now 30-45) and are convinced that having a fulfilling life was easier even as back as 20-30 years ago. They might be right.

[digitalengineer]

Looks like you’re not too far off. World fertility rates are dropping very sharply: “ The world is undergoing an unprecedented demographic transformation. Between now and 2050,the number of older persons will rise from about 600 million to almost two billion. In less than 50 years from now, for the first time in history, the world will contain more people over 60 than under 15.”

https://www.cassandracapital.net/post/the-unprecedented-demo...

[volkl48]

Regarding point 2: The developed world birthrates are well below replacement rate and likely staying that way, but that's not new. (Also, East Asia has the lowest birthrates in the world, not the US/Europe).

The world news story is the rest of the world rapidly approaching that, even in many not so rich places.

Within developed countries, I'm only particularly familiar with US data, but what's happening in the US is that the big minority + immigrant groups are what's showing the biggest drops, moving them towards the white birthrate.

[leftyted]

> I could be gravely mistaken and be a victim of living in a filter bubble. Of course.

Sounds that way to me.

Fertility goes down when women enter the workforce and have access to contraceptives. This is also when countries become prosperous. There's no reason to have five children when childhood mortality is low, pregnancy isn't risky, and you can have sex without getting pregnant.

I don't believe the whole "cost of living is going up" stuff that millennials constantly whine about. It's perfectly affordable to live in most places in the US. Millenials are victims of the college loan scam, i.e. going into debt for a worthless degree because "that's what you're supposed to do". They, their parents, the government, and especially the colleges are complicit in this victimization.

> But it's what I am seeing periodically and it worries me. People just don't care that much for making kids or looking for jobs since it all just guarantees suffering and sacrifices and nothing much else.

This kind of nihilism is related to affluence. It infects most people who go through the college system and never experience any struggle.

> Many elderly people tell me that they regularly chat with their kids (now 30-45) and are convinced that having a fulfilling life was easier even as back as 20-30 years ago. They might be right.

Again, this has to do with affluence and not the "world being worse/more expensive/etc". Happiness is related to struggle. Wearing yourself out, renewing your energy (sleeping), and then doing it all over again is the source of all sustained happiness. Increasingly, many people can opt out of this cycle, and it's making them miserable.