[marvin]

Is it true that most AI researchers were shocked by AlphaGo? These are the people who say it's impossible we'll get some qualitative breakthroughs yielding human-level or super-human general intelligence in the next few decades.

So if the majority of the group is that shocked by an incremental improvement, it would be better if we just interpreted their long-term forecasts as meaning "no idea" instead.

[6gvONxR4sf7o]

It would be best to interpret most long-term forecasts as meaning "no idea" instead. This goes for all groups, not just just ML researchers. Now, they have a little edge, and a big edge in the short term, but it's closer to "no idea" than anything else in the long term.

[afthonos]

It’s quite true. A take I found insightful (I think it might have made the top page when it was first posted):

https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/