[buzzkillington]

He is wrong in just about every case, yet he is right in the aggregate. We are terrible at predicting high impact low probability events and waste our time worrying about low impact high probability events.

Put another way, if we were Turkeys our risk analysis would be modelling how much food the farmer is bringing us every day. And we don't know about Thanks Giving.

[pillefitz]

With a basic world model + scenario analysis they should have become aware of the possibility of a Thanksgiving Event

[buzzkillington]

I am very interested in seeing the research about teaching Turkeys English, time keeping and American colonial history.