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by kerkeslager 2337 days ago
Hm. You're saying that inexpert decision-makers were misled by experts?

That is true, but I'd argue that the article is making a different claim: the article is claiming that experts are misled by their own expertise.

2 comments

It seems like one difficulty is in knowing what expertise is important? Assumedly the contractors thought they had expertise, but were lacking. The firefighters assumedly thought they had expertise, but we're lacking. What expertise do I think I have, but am actually lacking?
Yeah, that's difficult. The only answer I've found is experience. Gaining experience for yourself is painful because it's slow, and part of the experience is consequences of your mistakes: in fields like fire-fighting (or rock climbing, which I love) your mistakes can literally kill you. So hopefully you learn form other people's experience and mistakes as much as possible.
The experts were led to disregard reports of sagging by their trust in the computer model.