[joshuamorton]

> Why would you believe anything the government claims regarding immigrants?

Because Trump is in office, and if there was a modicum of evidence to support something like what you're suggesting (that what, the issuing agency of US visas is actually issuing more than they claim but lying about it??) the Trump admin would be all over it. They aren't.

> claiming that "11 million" of undocumented for the last decade.

I can't tell what you're implying here. Estimates of 10-12 million are the best estimates we've got, and are regularly validated by multiple groups. Your anecdotes don't do anything to change the actual trends across the US. One outlier study isn't conclusive either.

> I wouldn't believe the L1 and H1B counts, because it's estimated that there are a lot of visa overstays,

The best estimates are 2% of overstays, so like 20K people.

[hiram112]

I'm telling you that the estimate of 11 Million is not even close, and it's probably more like 20M-30M. The 11 million is based on the census from 10 year ago, and (you probably heard something about this in the news recently), we're not even allowed to ask them if they're citizens, so they use other ways to guess it. How many illegal immigrants do you think even answer a census, lol?

And 2% of overstays is a misleading number as that includes all those who enter on legitimate short term tourist visas which we don't hand out easily to countries with a high level of visa overstays, such as Venezuela or Sierra Leone. The people who do generally overstay their visas are those who come on short term work visas like L1, or former students who are no longer enrolled and the Opt 1 expired. Or family members 'visiting' their relatives, who never leave.

> In the U.S., visa overstays have exceeded illegal border crossings in each of the past seven years. In 2016, about 515,000 people arrived in the United States illegally, the Center for Migration Studies said in a report. Of these, 320,000, more than three-fifths, overstayed their visas, and the rest crossed a land border illegally. But tracking people who enter the U.S. legally until they leave is difficult. The Department of Homeland Security conducted its own analysis for fiscal year 2017, and its estimate was 702,000 overstayers. (To be clear, that number is a small fraction, 1.33 percent, of the more than 50 million people who arrive in the U.S. each year on valid visas.)

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/04/re...

[joshuamorton]

> Of these, 320,000, more than three-fifths, overstayed their visas,

Right, and that number includes (and is mostly due to) short term tourist visa overstays. The impact of that on tech workers is marginal. You're conflating tech worker visa overstays with non-tech worker visa overstays. And since tech worker visas are a small fraction (~1%) of visas granted, unless you're claiming that tech workers overstay at a much, much higher rate (like 20-30x the average), which isn't backed up by data, the number of tech workers here illegally due to visa overstays is indeed marginal. So I'll once again state that despite all your objections, a decent estimate of the number of high tech workers on visas is ~500K, maybe 600K at the top end. That includes all visas and all overstays.

> I'm telling you that the estimate of 11 Million is not even close

You're certainly welcome to continue believing that. It's not correct, but you're welcome to believe it.