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by moggi 2344 days ago
Interesting choice to use 1993 as the start for the comparison of Germany's trade surplus: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/balance-of-trade
4 comments

> Interesting choice to use 1993 as the start for the comparison of Germany's trade surplus: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/balance-of-trade

Because before 1993, you're not comparing apples to apples: "Germany" was two separate countries, and reunification affected the economics on both sides of the border.

It's true that the recession makes this a particularly favorable starting point for Germany, but it'd be misleading to compare Germany's economy today to the economy of West Germany of the 1980s (as many comparisons do) and ignore that half of modern-day Germany was the DDR at that point.

I think it's right in the text why 1993 was chosen:

> "Indeed, when the Single Market was adopted (1993), ..."

There were two major events that make the starting point a lot lower: Recession shortly before and German reunification with its significant economic distortions.
The numbers in the article are shaky.

For instance, the Netherlands had a trade surplus of $76 billion in 2017, but shows up as having a trade deficit.

France does not appear in the list of Germany's export partners, but it's actually number 2.

That’s why it’s easy to deceive by starting charts a certain date. When you look at the 1980s there was also a big increase. The y axis is linear so the newer increases look much more dramatic. When you look at the chart from 1950 you see a long term upwards trend with some setbacks.