[sudhirj]

There’s also the Turkey fallacy - Turkeys that are smug about knowing the Gambler’s fallacy keep thinking their survival is independent of their age, until people eat them. My probability of dying goes up with each year as well, it’s not constant.

Think the probability of the machine shutting down in the next minute is independent of age, but it shutting off in the next 100 years is certain. There’s a line or curve that should indicate probability of shutting down before OP writes the replacement.

[celticmusic]

This is how I feel when people talk about Schroedingers cat. Give me a week and I'll be able to answer that question definitively.