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by martinpw 2349 days ago
One thing that helps for me is to consider the bell curve profile, and the fact that a small shift greatly increases the area under the upper tail part of the curve where the extreme weather events live, eg:

https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/small-change...

It does require some ability to grasp the concept of these nonlinear effects, so might be an uphill battle, depending on who you are talking to.