[not_a_moth]

You won't get upgraded if it's a full flight and most biz seats are paid for, even with GPU. With gold especially unlikely, that will put you in the middle of a usually 50 person waitlist for 3 or 4 available seats.

All depends on how busy chosen routes are.

[asciimike]

Can confirm (1k with 125k+ BIS miles). My GPUs rarely clear on any reasonable route.