[account73466]

This time it is different.^{tm}

More seriously, we are almost about to

i) Generate a good book using a short intro.

ii) Generate a meaningful video using a few photos and a basic text scenario.

Which makes us closer to generate movies on demand (say in 2025) and then good luck to people claiming that the current progress in AI is a bubble.

[azinman2]

We’re no where near a “good book” (we can’t even do a good 3 paragraphs reliably), nor a “meaningful video.”

You’re confusing a 1000 monkeys (transformers) with 1 human intelligence (AGI). That giant leap hasn’t been met.

[AlexCoventry]

Have you seen the tables in Appendix E (starts p. 16) of the Transformer-XL paper? I think they're pretty good.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860.pdf

[username90]

Quote from that paper:

> The Battle of Austerlitz was the decisive French victory against Napoleon

It didn't even catch that Napoleon was the leader of the French as described in the source snippet. And this was when it just generated text of similar size as the input. Based on just that paper I highly doubt that this method will generalize to creating entire books.

[account73466]

"he was still in conflict with Emperor Napoleon, the French Republic’s king"

[username90]

My point was that the text lacked coherence, that quote only makes it worse. If it can't even keep coherence for a single page how would it manage for a hundred?

[account73466]

by improving metrics over time

see, e.g., https://gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard/

[account73466]

Glad to find they used something from my research. Don't want to disclose more, was flagged too much.

[account73466]

I guess you are not from the field.

Edit: I was right, he is an engineer and not a researcher who is active in the field.

[dang]

Please don't make personal dismissals. That's not in the spirit of this site, and we already had to ask you about this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21615955.

Instead, if you know more, share some of what you know. Then we all can learn something.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

[azinman2]

Especially since I do have a background in AI and machine learning.

[mamp]

AI winters are caused because people keep thinking the effort required to achieve some improvement is linear instead of exponential.

[monocasa]

I mean, even if we were to get nothing else out of the current AI boom, it'd e hard to call it a bubble as much as the 80s crash.