[monocasa]

Geopolitically, China is trying to prove that it's capable of ground breaking technology originating in China.

It makes no sense for them to hide it; they're going to be singing from the rooftops that they were first if they achieve that.

It'd be like if we went to the moon, but kept it under wraps. Like, why bother?

[rowanG077]

Going to the moon is not comparable to obtaining fusion. The entire reason to go to the moon is political dominance. The goal of fusion is not political dominance it's nigh limitless clean energy. China would be stupid to share such a huge advantage with the rest of the world. It simply doesn't way up to the political gain.

[threeseed]

The technology would eventually be stolen just like we have seen China successfully steal so much Western technologies.

[scarmig]

Sure, but why not take advantage of a 3-5 years head start?

If China were close to a surplus-energy generating Tokamak, the smart thing to do would be vague about it while pumping out a lot of disinformation to confuse Western intelligence agencies about the most productive path forward for research.

[godelski]

Because the more fusion plants you build the easier it becomes to steal the tech. So your options are

1) Get geopolitical dominance by showing you have it first (while still trying to prevent theft of IP)

2) Use it in quiet and in low usage to decrease vulnerability to state actors from stealing the tech.

One more important thing. Hiding it only hides it from other governments' populations, not the foreign governments. Because of this, most countries go for option #1.

[Kliment]

Option 3: Offer to license it to anyone who wants it, have orders in other countries finance your own buildout, while positioning yourself as the primary source of expertise on the technology. Establish lots of joint ventures and send lots of staff to work on the plants in other countries, further establishing interdependencies. Use this to apply soft power to the rest of the world while giving your population very cheap (subsidized by other countries) energy, and watch your economy grow. This is a strategy that is much more sensible for China than trying to keep it exclusive or hidden, assuming they have a working technology.

EDIT: If it needs further clarification, this is the French model of fission plant buildout.

[jonplackett]

This is the first answer that seems very plausible. Makes perfect sense as the best of both worlds. Political capital + actual capital.

[jldugger]

> It'd be like if we went to the moon, but kept it under wraps. Like, why bother?

Much of the point of space programs is to prove we can drop bombs back on earth with precision. I don't know how fusion reactors are a threat in that fashion.

[jasongill]

I think you have it backwards - the space program was born from the missile programs. It was more of a case of "ok, we have pushed the limits of the missile program, what can we do next?"

During the space race and Cold War, Russia and the US used surveillance to determine each other's weapons capability & capacity (and still do). There's no need for the space program to remind the enemy of what they already know.

The space program was a pissing contest, effectively, and while there was surely some military undertones, the point of our space programs was not as a deterrent - it was a show of might.

[natechols]

Some people claim the real goals of fusion power research have always been in support of fusion weapons development - specifically, by providing an experimental system for studying controlled fusion reactions (since uncontrolled fusion reactions are banned by treaty), and by providing a jobs program for fusion experts. I do not know enough about the practical obstacles to fusion power to judge the accuracy of this claim for myself, but there's no doubt that it's a dual-use technology, and some projects seem suspiciously like dead ends if commercial electricity generation is the real goal.

[creato]

> but there's no doubt that it's a dual-use technology

I do in fact doubt this. We've been building fusion weapons for 50 years very successfully, progress in fusion power plants is negligible in comparison. If fusion power plants are a dual use technology for weapons, they must be a very inefficient way to get there.

[natechols]

But we haven't actually tested those weapons in decades. Ensuring that the stockpile doesn't go bad is a huge money suck for the DOE, and it's been a key factor driving supercomputer improvements. You're right that it's very inefficient, but that has to be balanced against the political cost of setting off thermonuclear explosions regularly.

[roenxi]

If China can gain a massive energy advantage over their competitors they don't even need special weapons. If they can get a 10% per-capita energy advantage over the Americans then they win direct wars automatically by virtue of having a 3-4x manpower advantage. Economic engines win wars quite consistently.

[natechols]

There are a huge number of assumptions buried in that initial "If". China could just as easily blow several dozen billion dollars with no more to show for it than anyone else.

[onepointsixC]

China is extremely dependent on energy imports, averaging roughly 10 million bpd. Most of that oil comes far away from the Middle East traversing long shipping lanes which are close to many regional rivals which could easily disrupt said lanes. And that's not even bringing up the USN. Having a credible domestic answer to their energy needs would be covering what is currently a clear and present Achilles heel.

[anigbrowl]

It's the equivalent of an economic bomb.

[ddxxdd]

A confident nation, like a confident individual, has nothing to prove to anyone else.

Just imagine a scenario where Chinese GDP doubles over 5 years, while greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero over that same period. Imagine China's glee and their cackling laughter as Westerners scratch their heads wondering why.

For the record, I am an American who reads about plasma physics in my free time, under the distant hope that I can help America win this race.

[garmaine]

On the other hand, the world is hitting China with a lot of moralistic judgement and economic tariffs. This would give them the ability to say: “We gave you clean fusion. STFU.”

Not to mention the geopolitical advantage they would get deploying fusion plants to Africa, etc.

[Godel_unicode]

That's really only the case if you don't ever want anything from other people/nations. If you're going to be negotiating anything ever again, it might be useful to have chips like this to play.

[microcolonel]

Or they might just pretend, shuffle the waste out through tunnels; they already have a LOT of tunnels.