[tomp]

How could you possibly measure that? By the time that children even understand the concept of “optimism” (or even “future”), they have already had years (decades?) of positive or negative signals (either from their environment, or from their genes) that likely cause both optimism and success (such as non-abusive parents, health, etc.).

[watwut]

If you assume that everything will turn out bad, you wont even try. If you assume all people around you are assholes, you wont even try good relationships. Plus, people like better optimistically looking people and reward them more then pessimistic people with equal merit.

Moreover, outward apparent optimism create illusion of success even when there is not actual real success backing it. (The optimism does not even have to be real, you just have to be committed to consistently pretend it.)

[dasil003]

Very much this. I feel the same way about free will. It’s empowering to believe in it whether or not it’s technically true.

[asjw]

Let's play this game:

If you assume that everything will turn out well, you're not going to be cautious

If you assume people around you are all good you're in for some surprise, not of the good kind , especially if you are a girl in a dark alley

Plus, I dislike optimism, I find it's childish, but I get a lot of rewards nonetheless from people around me for being honest.

The illusion of success is not success, believing in the illusion of something is called faith, and it's what killed the people who prayed together for the black plague to stop, spreading the diseases.

[katzgrau]

This is the root of it, and something most on HN won't accept. Optimistic people generally see and seek opportunity (either knowingly or unknowingly) more frequently than pessimists.

[iudqnolq]

Won't accept? It seems startups are the same. "Rationally" a poor way to get rich, but if enough people miscaulate their odds (or enjoy it for nonmonetary reasons) we'll get a few big successes.

[katzgrau]

Most millionaires are those who started their own businesses or are self employed. Certainly not SV unicorns, but they run businesses you've never heard of started by ordinary people.

https://observer.com/2015/08/4-things-millionaires-have-in-c...

[watwut]

Yeah, there is that thing when optimism becomes euphemism for naive, not allowed to talk about problems and disadvantages. But I think that is manipulative way to see optimism.

Sometimes chances are low or times are bad and optimism should not equal refusing to see that.

[iudqnolq]

I think naivety is on the optimism spectrum. How do you define optimism such that it doesn't include deprioritizing negatives compared to positives?

[chinesempire]

> an optimist is said to see the glass as half full, while a pessimist sees the glass as half empty.

But even the optimist sees that the glass is only a half full.

Naivety is thinking that half full is the best possible outcome or the only possible outcome.

It literally means "lack of judgement"