[hinkley]

Isn't this just evolution versus revolution?

Most of the time new products evolve from the current state. Sometimes there's pent-up demand/frustration/hostility that allows for a clean break to a new solution (even if that solution has just as many problems, at least they're not the same problems).

Probably nine times out of ten people are looking for a better buggy whip. Without any other information, improving what you have is statistically the better bet. You have a very strong predictor, but no guarantees.