[pnako]

Why not? If half of the supply disappears overnight, prices will go through the roof, providing an incentive for current producers to increase output, by increasing effort in their existing mining operations, and more than likely by opening new operations.

[hanniabu]

If there are sanctions, wouldn't it be the demand being changed and not the supply?

[pnako]

The sanctions would presumably be about cobalt from the problematic regions, so it would not change demand.

But the supply would have to adjust away from the sanctioned region(s) to meet the existing demand.