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by allovernow
2379 days ago
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The "basic physics" contradicts the data. Your error is approaching this enormously complex question with the assumption that climate science is unquestionably correct. This lag is a glaring discrepancy that begs resolution. No, it doesn't mean climate science is totally wrong, but this attitude of unquestionability is absolutely pervasive in both society at large and academia, and gives deniers a justifiable reason for suspicion. And I'm not some snot nosed programmer looking in from outside. I'm a former geoscientist and I saw this pressure firsthand, even at a relatively conservative University. |
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I was attacking the implied invalid conclusion that rising CO2 levels would therefore not drive temperature.
But, to address the point in more detail, look at the data in [1]. CO2 typically does not lag temperature. If you cherry-pick points in time at the beginning of a Milankovich-induced temperature increase it may, and this is adequately explained by outgassing of CO2 from the oceans, driven by the sun. [2]
> [...] this attitude of unquestionability is absolutely pervasive in both society at large and academia, and gives deniers a justifiable reason for suspicion.
I try to find citations for what I write here, and address specific points, both to teach myself the science and to keep the discussion honest. If everybody here did this there would certainly be no "attitude of unquestionability".
I agree that it can probably seem that way on cursory look. I personally find it hard to always keep cool when faced with a barrage of pseudo-scientific points that don't hold up to scrutiny. More importantly, I find the implicit arrogance really hard to stomach, i.e. thinking that a huge field of scientists is too stupid to understand some "obvious fault" that someone posted on their blog. Maybe that makes me unfair to some participants who are just trying to understand the issue better and / or have an honest discussion. I'm sorry if that was the case.
[0] Lorius et al. 1990, https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/lo03000u.html
[1] Petit et al., 1999, Fig. 3, available from https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7rx4413n
[2] https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature-intermedia...