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by mtmail
2373 days ago
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"In Germany, there are two kinds of "on time". So far [2017], 94.2% of trains have reached their final destination within six minutes of the scheduled time, and 98.9% within 16 minutes." The article also goes into detail how every country measures punctuality differently. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42024020 (Yes, Germans love to complain about the train company) |
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That's a terrible statistic. First off, connections are designed to be just a few minutes, so 5 minutes delay (not included in this stat) makes you miss an average connection.
Secondly, that statistic is about trains, not people: one could manage to have 50% of people be delayed by 30-60 minutes every day and still have 94.2% of trains run on time just by having only the busiest trains between 8-9h and 16-18h delayed enough to miss people's local connection.
Finally, the final destination says nothing about intermediate stops (why not just look at every stop?). Things like switching drivers, refueling, or just introducing some slack in the schedule is most often done at endpoints. Heck, if I know this is the statistic being used, I would be sure to design my schedules to have even more leeway at the endpoints than I otherwise already would.
I'm curious to see how this statistic changes when it includes intermediate stops and counts delayed passengers rather than empty trains running on time. Optionally, counting the full delay (missed connection / actual frustration) instead of the technical train delay would also be interesting.
As one datapoint, my girlfriend takes a train from Cologne in rush hour that is 4-20 minutes late more than half the time, with a connecting bus that goes once an hour that is always on time or even early. She usually misses it.