[portillo]

NSR has some public estimates here: https://www.nsr.com/leo-survival-of-the-fittestor-the-smarte...

NSR estimates for SpaceX are higher than what SpaceX claims (Gwynne Shotwell just claimed some Morgan Stanley estimates of $1M launch + $1M to be way off [1]), but still, I wouldn't expect them to be able to launch the 4,409 satellites of their intial design for less than $10B. And it's not clear that they will be able to raise such amount of money without a clear path towards profitability.

I agree with the shaklee3, Tim's blog is very legit. As full disclosure, I am the first author of the MIT study he mentioned, and the more I look into LEO mega-constellations, the more skeptical I become.

[1] https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/11877454453611806...

[ericd]

Thanks! Why do you become more and more skeptical? Is there some fundamental reason they won't be competitive?