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by thatiscool 2384 days ago
some people are desparately preventing the stock market from crash.
1 comments

Agree, this is now much more than a small dent in the Fed balance sheet, it is a new period of QE:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

I am bearish but I can't say I am excited to bet against the Fed!

You don't need to bet against the Fed, you just need to bet against the dollar price index going up.
All the other central banks are doing the same.

The financial scheme does not trickle money in the real economy, people are having less children, all the money printing is doing is it is creating asset bubbles, enslaving the people willing to participate with loaned money.

If the dollar and the stock market are "going to crash", where should one put their money?
My advice is to take a look at the Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio or the Harry Browne Performance Portfolio because they both backtest beautifully through previous recessions. Betterment and Wealthfront also create wonderful risk/return profiles when reduced to 2.0-3.0 out of 10 on their risk scale and may generate better after-tax returns. If you have retirement funds, the ideal approach is to keep them in target-date funds set for the date you plan on retiring.

If you can't sleep at night because you're paranoid about a stock market crash, buy some long dated put options on SPY to insure your portfolio or to hedge against the unknown. If you're scared about a bond market crash, buy long-dated put options on TLT instead. The reason for long-dated puts rather than short-dated puts has to do with lower theta decay. Options can be expensive so this is a short-term solution.

> If the dollar and the stock market are "going to crash"...

-The scenario in which that happens is when corporate profits are lower than expected and inflation is higher than expected.

The better solution is to not buy overvalued stock and underperformant corporations in the first place but a wise man once said: "Don't go into stock-picking until you know how to value a stock." If you don't know how to value a stock, then the solution is to go into real assets like real estate, gold, or commodities. If you prefer real estate, REITs with a low P/AFFO or P/FFO ratio will have better returns. If all of the corporations and REITs are overvalued, the textbook-solution is to start your own public corporation or REIT.

Last, don't put all of your eggs in one basket.

Nobody really knows, or they would be rich.

Warren Buffet seems to hold cash in expectation for the next crash, but the last crash proved he can get access to much better deals than you and I can, so it doesn't mean you should hold cash because he does.

Real estate seems overpriced, but who really knows?

Gold?

Bitcoin? Yeah right.

Perhaps index funds? It would seem unwise now that stock markets are at all times high, but perhaps "time in the market is better than timing the market".

In the market. Let it crash. In 5 years you will be back to where you were or in the green.
Would it be better to hold cash and buy in on the dip?
Nothing says you can't do both
It will take several years before reality catches up with what's going in. I wouldn't bet on anything right now...
There won't be any catching up by the real economy, just as the 2008 QE proved, because people are willing to enslave themselves in debt with college debt, mortgage payments or huge rent while having less sex than ever, not starting families, not having children, paying for exorbitant private school fees, buying overpriced status items that they pay with more debt, willing to eat crap food.

Real economy is downsizing so there is no pressure from inflation and people are willingly enslaving themselves in debt.

Willing? People are doing what they need to do to survive. In this economy survival requires massive debt, capital, luck, or a niche and in demand skill that few have. The opportunities today cost more and reward less than those of decades ago.

People in general seem to have forgotten that we can protest en masse to force changes. I'll skip work and walk on Congress in protest with millions of Americans at my side but if I do this alone I'll just get arrested. I'll take the risk of incarceration, job loss, etc if millions of others are with me.

We can protest for single payer healthcare/universal Medicare, student loan forgiveness. We can force these changes. It takes effort. Until a leader emerges to direct the suffering of the masses into boots on the grounds chaos our society will continueto decay.

There are plenty of examples of people who moved to the bay area in a futile and vain attempt to "escape bigotry" while scraping by because of it. Sometimes it goes as far as living at a house where rent is divided by individual pieces of furniture (not an exaggeration, I've witnessed it firsthand).