[gleenn]

The point is that there is a surge of baby-boomers who will die and the number of people younger than them are a significantly smaller group, so there will in fact be a surge in available housing.

[s1artibartfast]

I thought so as well, but it simply isn't true. Total number of folks in their 60s will continue to grow.

Today, there are ~77 million Americans over 60. In 2040, there will be ~100 million Americans over 60.

You can play with the numbers here. https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...

[notacoward]

"In 60s" and "over 60" are not the same thing. That's playing a little too fast and loose with the statistics for my taste.

[s1artibartfast]

Sorry for any confusion, I looked at the numbers both ways. As posted elsewhere:

There are 37.5 million folks in their 60s now.

There will be 40 million folks in their 60s in 2030.

There will be 39 million folks in their 60s in 2040.

[glofish]

This argument is missing the point - the questions is not how many people will be of age X in 2040.

It is about how many homes will be released due to owners passing away in 2020 vs 2040.

The very fact that there will be more older people in 2040 also contributes to getting more homes released.

What the statistics does not even consider is what happens if we manage to extend life, even by say 10 years. A completely different picture emerges where homes get even more expensive.

[madengr]

There are as many millennials as boomers, whereas gen X is about 10 million less than either group.

I’d like to know what they are going to do with all the old-folks homes that are going up.

[notacoward]

There's a precedent for this: schools. A lot of towns had to build out to accommodate the boom, then deal with declining enrollment for GenX, then another increase for the "echo" generation that we now call millennials. If you want to know what retirement homes will go through, look at what schools already did.