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by madhadron
2384 days ago
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Conceptually you are right: all mathematical models have assumptions, including assumptions about their scope of applicability. But you are redefining "prior" to refer to all the assumptions of the model, and not its usual meaning as the prior distribution used in Bayes calculations. |
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For this investing example, it's also the only information we have, unless we're trying to update on something like a central bank announcement. So our probability distribution over N is just the prior distribution.
When you're actually trying to make a decision, and not just solving a problem handed to you in math class, you can't avoid using P(N). You can either say "The minimax procedure requires knowing P(N) as an input, so that it isn't dominated by extremely improbable N", or you can say equivalently that "Minimax doesn't require P(N), but as an assumption of my model I'm ignoring all states of nature N with P(N) < y, then applying minimax regret over the remaining N".