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by amunicio
2385 days ago
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Leaving aside the GPU market, if you believe AMD is going to take and sustain a sizable share of the CPU market in the next 2 years (in particular server, mobile and high-end desktop), then the answer is yes. If Intel manages to keep AMD market share below ~18% in the next couple of years, then probably not. The value of the stock revolves around how much money AMD is able to generate and the biggest variables here are volume of sales and margins on those sales. AMD's variable costs are probably higher than Intel's since they outsource their manufacturing to TSMC, but their fixed costs dwarf Intel's. Intel AMD
Market Cap $252B $44BRevenue $19.2B 2B Earnings Q3 $6B $0.12B Keeping aside the fact that AMD's numbers include GPU sales, notice how AMD's earnings to revenue ratio is very small compared to Intel's. Also notice that Intel's market cap is almost 7 times AMD's (again, AMD has a GPU business too). So the key is really, do you believe that AMD will be able to break the ~18% market share (in particular in high margin segments)? My back of the envelope calculations indicate that at around 20% market share AMD should be able to generate earnings close to the billion dollars per quarter, making AMD a buy. If they cannot break and sustain a market share close to that, my answer would be not. Disclaimer: I have AMD shares and I don't plan to buy or sale given current pricing. |
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