[fsloth]

" lift is now a commodity ... SpaceX will probably end up shutting down"

I take this that the price of orbital launch is insignificant compared to the cost of preparing and operating the cargo.

Are there any signs that space born cargo with lower capex and opex (and hence whose operators would have higher price sensitivity) would arrive?

[taneq]

The cost of the payload is huge today because the launch is so expensive that you have to make the most of it. If it's $25/kg to low Earth orbit, you can afford to be a lot more experimental and take a lot more risks with your cargo.