[xorfish]

I get that there is a very small window for funds that have alpha. However they are of no use to the average investor. Either they are closed to new investors or they are open and the performance edge goes away after some not too long period. Which is also the reason they stay closed.

Stocks don't have a 50% chance of being up per year. It is more close to 80-90%. The size of the return however makes a really good case that Simons fund is better than the other managers at discovering prices.

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns

I don't think we can be sure that Baupost's performance is not due to luck. Since 2001 it is reported to have an annual return of 9.4%, that is decent but not much above the market.

In the end, the average investor will not be able to invest in a fund that has consistent alpha. The alpha that a fund has will get smaller the bigger the fund gets. Just look at the recent performance of Berkshire Hathaway.