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by thomasknowles 5616 days ago
I can't see self driving cars being commonplace in 19 years time. People tend to like control.
6 comments

Those things change fast.

I remember when in the 90s most people preferred POP3 (for mail transfer), because for privacy reasons they didn't want their provider to have access to their mails. And quite a large number of people used encryption, even if they weren't technically inclined.

Today almost no one cares about privacy anymore. Expectations have completly changed within a century. Today it's, e.g., common for most people to store all of their chat logs on Google's server, without regularly deleting them. Or another example: Today we have much more advanced surveillance systems used against the general population than the techniques used in the DDR. For most people back in the DDR those surveillance systems where not acceptable. Today most people accept them if it helps the government "to find terrorists and criminals".

If privacy expectations can change within a century, why shouldn't the expectations on one's car change?

  > And quite a large number of people used encryption, even
  > if they weren't technically inclined.
I agree with your broader point that expectations and perceptions can change fast, but I don't ever remember a time when "quite a large number" of people used email encryption. Perhaps a larger group of users then than now had a desire for email encryption.
Google already has self driving cars that can safely navigate city traffic. I would say that 20 years is plenty of time to resolve the remaining technical and social issues.
Seconded. Most likely won't be a technical issue but more of a social issue.
I am so getting one as soon as they're legal. A road trip with a book to read? Heaven!
I already get that experience by using revolutionary 19th century technology - the train.
Only if it happens to go where you want it, and at the speed you want. Roads coverage is a lot more thorough and road travel tends to be faster outside of rush hour.
Well, congratulations for living somewhere where they have them. I guess I could catch a freight.
The train won't drop you at your doorstep though.
In my case neither would a car as there would almost never be a free parking space right outside of my apartment building, but point taken.
Your car would drop you off at your doorstep and then go find a parking spot on it's own!
People are also willing to cede control in favour of attributes that they value more such as safety, convenience and shorter trips (in duration).
You don't have to use the autodrive if you don't want to
That's an open question. An autodrive in traffic might be much more practical if it can either predict or communicate with the autodrives in all the other cars, rather than having to adapt to our erratic meat-oriented behavior.
No, it's like cruise control. If you want to use it, you hit the button. If you want to drive yourself, you don't.
What I'm predicting is a ban on manual control in heavy traffic. Besides any throughput improvement, all-autodrive traffic will probably be safer, which is our priority (to an IMHO unhealthy extreme).
How will an eventual ban (after every vehicle has auto-drive presumably) on manual control have any impact on the initial take-up of auto-drive systems? What you're talking about (if it ever happens) will only happen many years after auto-drive becomes popular.
Good point. There will be a period where it's optional, but if they hit the market by 2020 it will probably be mandatory by 2030.