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by ikeboy
2405 days ago
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>You're assuming the winning probability p does not decrease as the odds Y goes up. This is a silly assumption. No, the only assumption required is that the probability decreases much slower than the odds goes up. Which is self-evidently true; the complexity of the claim doesn't go up nearly as fast as the odds being offered. If the probability is 1/googol (in reality it's much higher than that, 1/googol epistemic probabilities never show up) but the odds being offered is 3^^^3, then you should take the bet, whether you're trying to maximize wealth or log wealth. |
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