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by fungicide
2399 days ago
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They've been repeating the same message of doom now for 30 years and it always fails to materialise. Eg 1989 "The most conservative scientific estimate that the Earth’s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years, said Brown" https://apnews.com/bd45c372caf118ec99964ea547880cd0 Actual temperature anomaly is 0.8 degrees.
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
So we're doing better than the best models predicted and we've massively increased co2 output beyond what those early modelers anticipated; Apparently those early climate modelers had not heard of China. |
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Who are they? you're citing "A senior U.N. environmental official". It is common rhetoric but it as no value. What is important to know is not what a single person said, but what the scientific consensus back then was.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1] in 1990 "global mean temperature will increase by about 0.3 °C per decade during the [21st] century".
It seems 0.8 degrees is close enough to the 0.3 * 3 °C they predicted.
Personally, I believe the most accurate prevision we can make today, based on current knowledge, is the one made by the GIEC. I don't see any reason to think that someone else knows better. And I also think that 30 years of research gives us more reliable prediction today than before.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Cli...