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by YeGoblynQueenne
2406 days ago
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But I'm not hallucinating and I'm not dreaming either. Also, I don't know why you're saying I'd round anything below one-in-a-million to zero. I wouldn't. But would assign zero probability to a mugger being an Operator from the Sevent Dimension because that's a patently absurd idea that I see no good reason to grace even with the slightest degree of belief. I mean, if you take what you are saying here at face value I actually have to assume that there is a probability that there exists a Seventh Dimension with magikcally powerful Operators inhabiting it. In real life, not just in the context of Pascal's Wager. Because I can't assign zero probability to anything. That just doesn't make any sense at all. >> You didn't even reply to the part about removing all the silly stuff and cutting it down to just "guy offers to sign a document for lots of money"... Apologies. I didn't understand what you meant with that and I didn't want to clutter the comment space with more clarifying questions. |
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You've never been unsure if something actually happened for a moment? Because even if you only spend a few moments like that per month, we can assign it a probability.
> I mean, if you take what you are saying here at face value I actually have to assume that there is a probability that there exists a Seventh Dimension with magikcally powerful Operators inhabiting it. In real life, not just in the context of Pascal's Wager. Because I can't assign zero probability to anything.
You don't think there's any chance that you fundamentally misunderstand the universe and that there are powerful secrets being actively hidden from you? It doesn't have to be real 'magic', just something too beyond your understanding. I think there's some chance of that. I'd say less than 1% and more than 1 in a googolplex, to put some amusingly loose bounds on it. And then you have to factor in the chance the guy picks you in particular to mess with, but that's not an unreasonably large number.
> Apologies. I didn't understand what you meant with that and I didn't want to clutter the comment space with more clarifying questions.
You're objecting so specifically to the seventh dimension stuff, I thought it would be simpler to cut all that out. The point of the thought experiment is just a very likely but very positive act. And the way to have a productive conversation is to respond to the strongest form of the argument. So in that version, you can't just declare that the person in front of you isn't a rich guy screwing around and giving money to people that accept, because the probability of that is clearly not zero.