[AnimalMuppet]

> All new technology is overestimated short term, but underestimated long term.

Well, no, some technology is overestimated short term and also overestimated long term.

For example, flying cars. Nuclear fusion (though that one could still come through). Gallium arsenide (still one of my favorite names for a speed-metal band, and still available as far as I know).

The question is, which category is AI going to be in? AI for specific tasks seems likely to be underestimated long term. AGI? My guess is that it's overestimated long term, because it isn't going to happen. That's a guess. Evidence? Don't have any. Guesses are like that.