Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by lidHanteyk 2403 days ago
In no particular order:

* Helping a googleplex of people immediately vs over a period of time are two different complexities of action.

* Recall that hypotheses are selected from an ambient pool of possibilities. Then we might imagine that some hypotheses dominate others, so that regardless of how much evidence is offered, we always insist that the evidence supports a simpler alternative. To wit:

"Well, if I'm not a Matrix Lord, then how do you explain my amazing powers?" asks the Mugger.

"Street magic," you say. "Very impressive sleight of hand. Perhaps some smoke, mirrors, lasers, assistants."

* A Matrix Lord asking $5 of a person on the street in order to commit miracles is inherently irrational. If they just wanted $5, or wanted to deprive the person of $5, or wanted to humiliate and embarrass the person, or force them to accept certain philosophical truths, then those all could be achieved via Matrix Lordery. Therefore the Lord in this story is being a pointless dick, and it's silly to expect rational arguments to be part of the conversation. To wit:

"Just give yourself $5. Give yourself any reward you like, for helping people; it's not my place to set or fulfill the price of such powerful entities, is it?" you ask.

"But...but don't you want the feeling of doing good?" asks the Mugger.

"Not really, no," you reply. "I have investments and equity already, and those dollars already have ripples that affect people far beyond my direct control. I don't feel much of anything about those investments. And it would be irrational for me to value a $5 investment more than $5. Really, if you can do all of this good, then you should turn yourself into an exchange-traded fund, and let people buy your time to do good in the world," you muse.

"But...but this offer is for you, and you alone," the Mugger insists.

"Okay, but why me? Let's talk about the Self-Sampling Assumption!" you say. The Mugger groans.

1 comments

That's a good point: if the Mugger is an Operator from the Fifth Dimension and he has such great magickal powers, why does he need the 10lb in Pascal's wallet? Or, if he does need them, why can't he just get them?

Like, we are asked to believe that, given that the Mugger is an Operator from the Seventh Dimension, he has the power to offer 10 quintillion Utils to Pascal, but not the power to just take the 10lb from his wallet.

I think the whole paradox can still stand, given that the Mugger can then just offer an amount of Utils that compensates from the much smaller conditional probability of the Mugger being only sorta omnipotent.

On the other hand, I think we can easily resolve the paradox by inserting the Crowbar of Cynical Jadedness: If it sounds too good to be true, then its probability of being either good, or true is zero (it can be one or the other with a non-zero probability, but not both). 10 quintillion utils (or however many) sounds too good to be true, so it can't be true. A Used Car Salesman will never offer you a good deal. The Mugger is only lying to get Pascal's money.