[Erlich_Bachman]

Sounds more like you are taking the argument too seriously and are trying to read more into it than what it is.

It is just a philosophical story created to provide a certain line of reasoning, as certain possible structure of an argument. People are free to apply this argument however they want, it doesn't prove anything by itself, it doesn't say anything about the world, it's up to the user of it. It does not make any conclusions, it's just a story. Carmack used it to illustrate his own beliefs (which are therefore: AI is possible and the payout for the AI is exteremely high, even if probability for it during the next couple of years is low).

Carmack did not mean that you should believe or not believe in AI or anything else based on this argument. He just used it to illustrate what he himself chose to do. He did not base it on this argument alone, he did not just hear the argument and suddenly decide "now because of that I have to work on AI", he based it on his experience and knowledge of the actual field. The mugging argument is just a cute way of quickly explaining it.

> I think he's smarter than me, so what am I missing?

Wisdom and context.