[joe_the_user]

That's a good argument against seemingly plausible but risky approaches.

This particular situation, of someone just pulling "it could be true!" out of their arse, can also be solved by framing things as "the more utility you claim, the less likely it seems and disproportionately so".

IE, if the chance of getting X from the scoundrel is less than 1/(X^2*C), even integral of all the offers together winds up very small.