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by UltimateFloofy
2417 days ago
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point 11 on part 2: a smooth transition of the global population to 2-3B. Over how long a time-frame does Dr.Rees expect this to happen? Thanos only killed half the population. Mao only starved ~40M/50M. He has no imagination for what could be with all the will and imagination of a generation faced with dire results and instead draws bleak resolutions that sound like the aftermath of a WW3. |
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Depending on the timeline for achieving a 2-3B population, any period of less than ~100 years is not attainable without a huge increase in mortality. That's shown in numerous models suggested by the 1970 Limits to Growth project.
In pre-industrial times, and as recently as 1850s Ireland, massive population declines in regional areas were fairly commonplace. The Irish Potato Famine, through direct mortality and emigration, reduced the population of Ireland from 8 million to 4, over a period of 60 years:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)#/medi...
Ireland has still not regained its 1850 population peak.
Note too that Ireland's population had increased tremendously from the 3 millions of 1740. The potato primed the trap the blight triggered.
There were numerous other notable famines in the 19th century, several in China, then as Ireland under strong British influence. These continued through the 20th century, including in both Nationalist and Communist regimes. The Ukranian Holdomor struck at the same time as famines elsewhere in the world, and was somewhat contemporaneous with the Dust Bowl in the US, a localised famine, in which there was some starvation, though largely manifested as a massive internal migration (see especially Steinbeck's The Grapes of Wrath).
The people who realise this is a potential path are largely wholly aware of just how horrific the prospect is, both in direct misery and the all-but-certain breakdown of all social, governmental, commercial, and technical institutions. While there are some who embrace this, they tend to be extreme outliers.
Most see this as the scenario to avoid at all costs.