[Richard_East]

Plus increase in labour costs due to slower transit times, longer shipping times pushing more companies to use air transport... a whole lot of unintended consequences.

I think its still best to focus our political willpower on accelerating the transition to electric vehicles. There is the obvious human health benefit of not having hundreds of millions of tiny engines exhausting fumes at the ground level of cities.

[dragontamer]

> I think its still best to focus our political willpower on accelerating the transition to electric vehicles.

Electric vehicles, for the near term, remain a toy of rich people. Apartments will NOT have electrified parking lots, outside of a select few spaces. Tesla's "Supercharger" requires 150 kW of power-delivery per parking space. (Average american household uses ~30 kW-hrs per day, or roughly 1.25 kW on the average).

The real solution is public transportation. Electrifying public transportation (ex: monorail, trams, electric busses, etc. etc.) forces the ENTIRE car-less class to go electric. We're talking about 20%+ of America will be "forced into electric" if public transit were upgraded.

Pushing more Americans onto public transit will only make those numbers better. Tax incentives to Amtrak / Busses and other such programs should make public transit more popular.

[nickfromseattle]

>Apartments will NOT have electrified parking lots, outside of a select few spaces

Why not? Are you sure that won't happen as demand increases? Is it too expensive? How much does it cost?

I was in London recently and they had electrified lamp posts. None of the houses had garages so this enabled the residents to buy electric.

[dragontamer]

> Why not? Are you sure that won't happen as demand increases? Is it too expensive? How much does it cost?

I don't have the real numbers. But I can run some estimates in my head to see what is or isn't reasonable.

I'm thinking on the scale of my neighborhood. I have ~5000 housing units in my neighborhood (Mixed-housing development: single-family, townhomes, condos, and rental properties such as apartments). We have a bit over 12,000 humans living in my neighborhood.

The neighborhood design is currently scaled at maybe 20MW of power or less. I don't know for sure, but 6MW (average daily load), x3 because summer has higher loads (air conditioning)... just for a rough estimate for the power-infrastructure of my neighborhood.

Again, I don't have precise numbers. But 20MW capacity is probably the capacity of my neighborhood covering 12,000 people.

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20MW will cover 133 Tesla Superchargers (150kW per). That is to say, to provide 3% of the homes in my neighborhood with a supercharger, the power-capacity needs to be doubled for the entire neighborhood.

A more reasonable estimate is for 22kW chargers (much slower, but 3-phase power and more easily supported for sure). In this case, roughly 900 chargers can be installed if my neighborhood doubles its electric capacity (18% of homes can have an electric vehicle).

And many homes are 2x or 3x car households. So really we're aiming at 200% or 300% cars-to-homes ratio if you want to go "all electric vehicles" across the whole neighborhood. To get there, my neighborhood needs to deploy something on the order of 200MW of power-capacity.

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So now, ask yourself. What is approximately the cost of providing 10x more electricity to every single neighborhood in the country? Its not going to be cheap, that's for sure.

[iknowstuff]

Overnight charging does not require a supercharger. That's for quick stops on long journeys. All people need on a daily basis in their apartment buildings are ~4kW outlets which in the 220V world is basically any outlet.

And mind you those cars charge at night, when people are not using as much electricity.

Tesla Model 3 has a range of 250 miles at 54kWh. Say you need a range of 50 miles every day. 50mi/250mi range * 54kWh = 10.8kWh per day. This can easily be charged overnight at ~3.5kW (220V * 16A) - will take a little over 3 hours.

[dragontamer]

I understand that my estimates are a bit off, but you're welcome to provide a back-of-the-napkin power-capacity result yourself if you think you have a better methodology.

5000-homes x 7kW charger == 35MW of capacity that needs to be added to my neighborhood. Still a lot of electricity, no matter how you cut it (upgrading from 20MW current capacity -> 55MW).

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As I said, I don't have hard numbers. But we need a starting point that we agree upon for planning purposes. If you have better numbers, please share.

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> Tesla Model 3 has a range of 250 miles at 54kWh. Say you need a range of 50 miles every day. 50mi/250mi range * 54kWh = 10.8kWh per day. This can easily be charged overnight at ~3.5kW (220V * 16A) - will take a little over 3 hours.

EDIT: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/41189.shtml

26 kWh/100 miles. EPA measures 13kW-hrs of charging every 50-miles. So my numbers are slightly different, but still within the magnitude of your result.

But that mileage will be different in the winter. This link suggests a drop of 33% efficiency... so 50-miles needs 20 kw-hrs of charging. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/33-range-loss-in-col...

[iknowstuff]

For America: The average commute is 16 miles. 16x2/250x54kWh = 6.912kWh/day. Most modern residential circuits are 15 or 20 amps, so we're looking at a max load of either (15A x 120V =) 1800W or (20A x 120V =) 2400W. 6.912kWh/1.8kW = 4 hours of charging.

5000 * 1.8kW = 9MW when all cars are pulling the maximum load. Mind you, they will be pulling it at night, when there is excess capacity available due to lower energy use from other appliances.