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by jacques_chester 5623 days ago
Thanks for the followup.

I am not an economist of Hayek expert, but my understanding is that he address "markets as information" as being markets. Even gambling markets and futures markets, which are both classes of prediction markets generally, are actually information markets even though they are ostensibly about goods or events.

I agree and disagree about your characterisation of technology. While yes, computers make authoritarianism more tractable, I don't think they can completely solve the calculation problem.

Suppose you use Leontiev input-output matrices to do your central planning. Matrix multiplication is an O(n^3) problem (I've been told by a mathematician that it can be done in n^2.75 with some tricks). If we take GDP growth as a proxy for the number of matrices required, it would need to be kept below a few percent or it would outstrip Moore's law in the long run. And that's ignoring the problem of populating the matrices in the first place.

FWIW, I host an economics blogger in Australia, Dr Nicholas Gruen, who has proposed to reduce market volatility by requiring blind clearances on a once-per-minute basis.

1 comments

I like Gruen's idea. Try this one on: We could have size investors continuously publish their postions. A 10000 investor x 10000 securities matrix would be more than enough. Price vol would drop like a stone.