[mikemotherwell]

It can't be true that keeping a nuclear power plant running is more costly than replacing it with a massive capital expenditure. Can it?

The only possible way is if the alternative is massively funded by debt, and the "cost" is based on historically low interest rates and a repayment timeframe in the decades.

Even then, given the ongoing cost of nuclear is relatively small, how is it possible that the capital expenditure of solar + natural gas is cheaper than the running cots of nuclear? Can someone show me that maths?

[beat]

When something is true, saying "it can't be true" doesn't make it not true. This is happening to existing nuclear plants in the US. Not plans for plants, not plants in construction.

This caught my eye when a nuclear plant in Iowa (near friends, including one who retired from working there) got slated for shutdown, over a decade before end-of-life. They'd lost a key industrial customer that consumed 30% of the plant's output to much cheaper wind/gas. At that point, operating costs went into the red. The plant was no longer generating the revenue to pay off its own debt. It was a purely economic decision.

And yes, the wind and gas that ate its lunch are also capital expenditures, amortized over time. But they're still much cheaper.

[keanzu]

The market is easily distorted by government.

Want nuclear to win? Interest free loans. Want wind/solar to win? Subsidies.

Put a thumb on the scale and make it say whatever you want.