Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by greedo 2417 days ago
If we need to cut emissions worldwide by half in 10 years, there's no solution. Renewables can't expand fast enough.
2 comments

You're assuming that we only need to replace all our energy sources with renewables but otherwise we can keep running as usual.

As you correctly point out, that's not going to cut it. However, there's an easy solution that has been suggested by various people for at least the past 50 years: Lower consumption, lower energy requirements, halt the desire for infinite growth.

Sure. Sounds easy. Go tell 2+billion Indians and Chinese to lower their consumption. Tell Africa to be happy with their current standard of living.

US/EU energy consumption has been relatively flat despite population growth. The increase in energy consumption is largely in Asia.

Expecting these societies to limit themselves with your "easy solution" shows a lack of realism.

The richest countries are the biggest polluters per capita, no competition. Accusing the "Indians and Chinese" for pollution which is in fact the direct consequence of "Western" consumption is misleading, hypocritical and redirects attention from the real, underlying problems.

See also [1] for a counterpoint to your claims of increasing efficiency.

1: https://www.pnas.org/content/112/20/6271

No argument at all about per capita energy consumption. My point isn't to blame developing countries at all. It's to illustrate that as over 2 billion people try to emulate Western lifestyles, their energy consumption is going to skyrocket. And Western expectations that they should just limit their growth/advancement is the hypocritical view.

When you view Western energy consumption, it's growth is largely correlated to population increases.

Of course they can. It doesn't take more than 2 years to setup a solar/wind farm, meanwhile a nuclear plant takes an average of 7 years to build and deploy.

Solar is especially good at this, because with the right incentives you can have people put it on their roofs - it's the sort of scaling that's impossible to achieve in megaprojects like nuclear power plants.

Rooftop solar isn't viable in a large portion of the world, and solar is much better served in mega deployments. Scale matters.

That said, if you look at the total amount of energy consumed worldwide, the grow rate of this energy consumption, the amount currently generated by renewables, and the growth rate of renewables, it's pretty obvious that there's no realistic way to cut emissions 50% in a decade. Absolutely none short of a global war that devastates both modern society and reduces world population by 25%.