[ClumsyPilot]

I understand that, but if you are going to criticise him (?), you should suggest whatever it is you deem appropriate. Then it's going to be constructive.

If you are not going to make the effort, why should he take your criticism seriously?

[learc83]

There's nothing appropriate to suggest. Predicting the rate at which health insurance costs are going to rise over the next 20 years is impossible.

I can however tell you that naive extrapolation is definitely the wrong way to do it.

Look at the 2nd derivative it's all over the place, so assuming that it will magically stay constant is wrong. The 2nd derivative of healthcare as a percentage of GDP is actually negative over the last few years.