[fzeroracer]

Societies did one of the following:

1. Had the government or community take care of the elderly.

2. Criminalize poverty and force them to work or be imprisoned.

3. Let them die.

Even the Roman Empire had pension for people that served in the military. You can take your pick as to which system you'd prefer, but pensions have quite literally existed for thousands of years in some form.

[xkde]

4. Personal saving / investing. 5. Lean on family (super common, even in several non-American societies today)

It’s disingenuous to assert that the alternative to no pension is blood in the streets.

[fzeroracer]

And what happens when the economy goes bust when you're running down your investment in your retirement years? Or if you can't invest or save due to the many rent-seeking behaviors we see nowadays? Do we just let them die because they had the misfortune of bad timing or being take advantage of?

For 5: Even in those non-American societies they have recognized that leaning 100% on your family is generally a bad thing for working professionals. Or at least those companies are not willing to pay for their employees to take care of their elderly or disabled family members.

[et2o]

Exact same thing happens to pension funds, though. They're somewhat insulated due to size, but they are no less susceptible to large market changes.

[behringer]

A pension is a personal savings. Back when pensions were actually offered by companies, you'd often choose your company by not just your paycheck, but by the retirement plan they offer. You would literally turn down jobs that might pay better but offer no pension. If that's not saving your money, then what is?

[xkde]

Because pensions aren’t portable. They lock you into a particular organization. 401k, stocks, savings accounts, etc, do not. Pensions (in the private sector, public ones are another ball of wax entirely) do not protect you against inflation. You have no control over what they’re invested in (which in some cases, is the pension manager’s retirement). There are much better options available.

[walshemj]

You can move pensions and you can sack the manager and replace them as one of the biggest UK DB ones has done

[ryandrake]

I think the USA going to soon learn the ugly truth about your item 4: that massive swaths of the population have not saved adequately. I mean, I make pretty ok money and save the max every year, but there is no way on earth my pathetic 401k is going to last even 10 years after I stop working. Now consider the average American who has fuck-all in their retirement account. Despite their disadvantages, pensions at least let people who didn’t save retire in (perhaps difficult) dignity. When my account says $1 and I have no other living breadwinners in my family, my only remaining retirement option is to spend that last dollar on a bullet.

[shantly]

I'm pretty sure that and our 2-3x inflation annual increases in our already-insanely-high healthcare spending are going to lead to civil unrest in the next 30-40 years. On the shorter side for the healthcare spending (no way we can keep up the current rate of increases even 20 more years without an actual, honest-to-god revolt) and somewhat later for the failing retirement system (such as it is). I'm a lot more worried about those than climate change, which we are for-sure not going to address anyway if those aren't dealt with.

[learc83]

>(no way we can keep up the current rate of increases even 20 more years without an actual, honest-to-god revolt

Why would you assume the rate of increase would keep increasing at the same rate?

[shantly]

Rate at which the spending is increasing, that is, not rate at which the rate of increase is increasing.

[learc83]

That's what I meant. Why would you assume it would keep increasing at the same rate. Nothing maintains a steady growth rate long term.

[ClumsyPilot]

Why would you criticise his extrapolation without offering a well-justified alternative?

[learc83]

Because naive extrapolation based on current growth rate is almost always a bad idea.

[xkde]

Not arguing about the US being about to learn this the hard way. But when we get to that point, neither a pension nor a 401k will be able to save anyone.