[navigatesol]

In what sense are the IPCC conservative? They've overestimated temperature changes since their first analysis in 1990.

Maybe calling institutions "conservative" because they are the lowest of the over estimators is part of the problem here?

[NeedMoreTea]

Nearly all surprises are of how much faster than predicted events are happening. IPCC have consistently under-estimated:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-ipcc-unde...

They are, after all, an intergovernmental UN body, which includes representatives from the oil states and countries that are "unconvinced" by climate heating. Yet IPCC reports require unanimity. Thus what gets published is the least contentious, least offensive spin possible - the version that even the oil states and coal exporters can agree.

Saudi has tried to significantly tone down reports to protect their oil interests:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/m...