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by sokoloff 2417 days ago
Why wouldn’t it be possible to get worse? The murder rate of 19 per 50K is still fairly low in overall terms and could dramatically increase without triggering any “natural limit”.

Combine that with the adverse selection of population, it could get quite a bit more dire. If you had significant resources and flexibility, you’ve probably already moved your family out of Flint. As things get worse, people with “any” rather than “significant” resources/flexibility will move out. As you remove swaths of population who (for whatever reason) tend to commit less violent crime, your remaining violent crime rate gets worse.
2 comments
derek1800 2417 days ago
What you described in the second paragraph was happening well before the water crisis. Which is why Flint is in the shape it is. How much the water crisis increased or contributed to this would be interesting to know vs people who did it before.
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derek1800 2417 days ago
It can technically And definitely get worse but if you are using that statistic only you wouldn’t understand the totality of how bad it is in Flint. You really have to see it to understand how bad it is. My point is you cannot make it seem like all of sudden flint is going to become high crime rate going forward due to this.
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ur725 2417 days ago
That was not at all their point or what they were getting at. Things can always get worse, and this single statistic can be the tipping point to make it worse. I say this as someone who LIVES in the area. Betting you do not.
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