| These are some quotes from various interviews - "But we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time. We make our forecast. Then, shortly thereafter, we reevaluate the situation and revise our forecast and our portfolio. We do this all day long. We're always in and out and out and in. So we're dependent on activity to make money." Renaissance essentially attempts to predict the future movement of financial instruments, within a specific time frame, using statistical models. The firm searches for something that might be producing anomalies in price movements that can be exploited. At Renaissance they're called "signals." The firm builds trading models that fit the data. When the trading starts, the models run the show. Renaissance has 20 traders who execute at the lowest cost and without moving markets, crucial requirements for quant investors trading on narrow margins. But the models decide what to buy and sell. Only in cases of extreme volatility, or if the signals appear to be weakening, does the firm sometimes manually cut back. Says Simons, "We don't override the models." ... "We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random. Our scheme is to analyze data and markets to test for statistical significance and consistency over time," says Simons. "Once we find one, we test it for statistical significance and consistency over time. After we determine its validity, we ask, 'Does this correspond to some aspect of behavior that seems reasonable?'" ... Many of the anomalies we initially exploited are intact, though they have weakened some. What you need to do is pile them up. You need to build a system that is layered and layered. And with each new idea, you have to determine, Is this really new, or is this somehow embedded in what we've done already? So you use statistical tests to determine that, yes, a new discovery is really a new discovery. Okay, now how does it fit in? What's the right weighting to put in? And finally you make an improvement. Then you layer in another one. And another one. ... Everyone in the company read the book about LTCM. It makes you wary in a general sense. Our approach is very different. We don't start with models. We start with data. We don't have any preconceived notions. We look for things that can be replicated thousands of times. A trouble with convergence trading is that you don't have a time scale. You say that eventually things will come together. Well, when is eventually? ... https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b151340bp779jn... ... "Have an open atmosphere. The best way to conduct research on a larger scale is to make sure everyone knows what everyone else is doing... The sooner the better - start talking to other people about what you're doing. Because that's what will stimulate things the fastest. No compartmentalization. We don't have any little groups that say. this is our system and we run it we get paid because of it. We meet once a week - all the researchers meet once a week, any new idea gets brought up, discussed, vetted, and hopefully put into production. And people get paid based on the profits of the entire firm. You don't get paid just on your work. You get paid based on the profits pf the firm. So everyone gets paid based on the firm's success." In sum, the secret is: "Great people. Great infrastructure. Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance... That made a lot of money." |