[greedo]

You really think that ULA etc is going to be able to catch up to SpaceX in a decade? For the US, I see SpaceX dominating launch just as Boeing dominated passenger jets. Eventually Congress will realize the fiscal futility of hamstringing NASA. The only thing that Boeing etc will be building will be ICBMs/SLBMs.

[manicdee]

ULA will have engines from Blue Origin, and both ULA and BO will have second mover advantage in designing their own fully reusable launch systems.

Once SpaceX has got Starship working even only for LEO missions, China will have a clone up and running within two years. ULA might be a bit slower due to overly zealous bureaucracy.

Eventually these launch providers will mean SLS gets cancelled with NASA funding switching more to pure science (eg: building missions to look for life on icy moons, not the rockets to get them there).

Congress will continue to hamstring NASA even as their best and brightest depart for commercial operations with bigger R&D budgets.

[greedo]

China can't even manufacture military grade jet engines. You think that they'll be able to clone Raptor? I haven't looked at BO's engine tech since there's so much vaporware with them, but is it close to Raptor?

[manicdee]

They don’t have to clone Raptor, just use an open cycle hydrolox and suffer a weight penalty of extra insulation. That will still give them a reusable LEO launch vehicle with tens of tons payload capacity. Raptor is what it is because SpaceX wants it as part of their Mars project, meaning hydrogen is off the table due to long term storage requirements.

As for the jet engines, is that what you know or what you have been told? What is the provenance of that data? Is there any chance that you are victim to a Chinese disinformation campaign?

[greedo]

The Chinese have been trying to manufacture fighter grade jet engines for over 20 years, with a pretty dismal result. They tried to clone the various Russian engines that have come with the Su-27's they've purchased, but they've had trouble with the metallurgy. Even their latest stealth fighter (J-20) is using an upgraded version of this engine (Saturn AL-31).

And considering BO had previously said they'd have manned missions by 2018, I'm skeptical of anything in their forecast.