[tuberelay]

> With the introduction of the US Fed, recessions became less frequent, less damaging, so much so that the period called the Great Moderation still has economists working on exactly how come the previous boom and bust cycle got so smoothed.

Well, this was the narrative up until 2008.

> From what I can find, a large majority of the world's population has access to and uses bank accounts, and the vast majority of the rest use cash to transact wages and purchases.

All of which are at the mercy of whoever is in power at the time. In the past few years: - 80 million turks have lost 80% of the value of their cash savings - 40 million argentines have lost 90% of the value of their cash savings - 30 million venezuelans have lost 99% of the value of their cash savings

Many other countries have high single digit or double digit true rates of inflation. Even the US rate of inflation is likely double what the official measures are.

You think this is good?

[ChrisLomont]

>Well, this was the narrative up until 2008.

It's still the narrative. 2008 was the biggest since the GD in 1929. Here's a list [1] of all US recessions. There's no question volatility has been reduced since the introduction of the Fed. And the same has been demonstrated in dozens countries.

>80 million turks have lost 80% of the value of their cash savings - 40 million argentines have lost 90% of the value of their cash savings - 30 million venezuelans have lost 99% of the value of their cash savings

And billions of people have not lost their savings, and billions have been removed from poverty. Cherry picking outliers does not make your case very persuasive.

There's 7+B people on the planet. Demonstrate that your tiny number is worse than before central banking then you will have some room to complain.

The vast literature on this shows the evidence to be otherwise.

>Even the US rate of inflation is likely double what the official measures are.

Yeah, this is nonsense, propagated by places like ShadowStats. There are ample other groups measuring inflation, such as the Billion Prices Project [2], and they obtain the same numbers. If inflation were lied about, there would be ample ways to game various commodities and make a pretty hefty profit. Yet no one I've known in trading has ever heard of such a thing, despite many people trying to do so.

And the most compelling way is you can check it yourself. Take BLS reported inflation for the past few decades. Pick a basket of goods similar to theirs. Measure local prices in a spreadsheet. Now go to your local library or the web and find old ads from decades ago, which is easy to do now. Compute the basket value then.

Even a percent off over a few decades would vastly skew prices. I've done this legwork out of debunking ShadowStats to someone I know that believes their nonsense. You can do it, and disabuse yourself of such unsubstantiated conspiracy nonsense.

>Many other countries have high single digit or double digit true rates of inflation. ... You think this is good?

Yes, it's better than a deflationary spiral. Single digit inflation, if somewhat stable, is vastly better than previous boom bust cycles.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Unit...

[2] http://www.thebillionpricesproject.com/

[tuberelay]

I disagree with almost all of this. I doubt there's any point arguing the individual points with you though.

Time will tell who is correct.

[pjkundert]

Not to mention the Great Depression and two world wars, all under the tender ministrations of the US Federal Reserve...

[ChrisLomont]

Are you claiming the Fed caused the wars?

Do you care to contrast your implications to periods without the Fed? How many depressions? How many wars?

The Great Depression showed pretty conclusively the folly of a non-fiat currency, since the Fed was still tied by the gold standard, as were many other countries. The distinction between length of depression with and without fiat money was the nail in the coffin for things like gold standards. The results of modern monetary policy during the Great Depression is what led to every single country in the world dropping the gold standard.

Evidence beats speculation in the long run every time.