[asdfj843lkdjs]

This is genius! But accidentally genius!

The author starts off well, makes an important point about stock picking never being better then a random walk and then.... picks stocks. Pure genius!

It shows you in a true, completely unintentional way, how so many people get sucked into this even when they trying as hard as they can NOT to get suckered like everyone else.

Dilbert's strategy is essentially a bet on the global economy minus Europe. Since Europe is a part of the global economy, I'm guessing +/- Europe doesn't make much of a difference.

The author's investment is a complex bet on individual stocks, commodities, and more commodities. It's just amazing how unaware smart people can be when they are outsmarting themselves.

[steadicat]

Actually the portfolio is bonds, an index fund, and only a small fraction in a commodity and one stock. You could argue that I should keep the individual stock out of it. But the rest of your argument is just straw man.

[tptacek]

Here's the portfolio:

  55% Bonds (BND)
  15% ARM (ARMH)
  15% Oil 2X (UCO)
  15% Small-Cap Stocks (VB)