[clairity]

it doesn't have to be a free will argument at all, but rather luck overwhelming skill when it comes to outcome. we still have some margin of control, but on a much smaller scale (and effect) than we believe.

it's not even surprising we'd jump to such conclusions: our brains are designed to tease out and magnify the significance of the things that we do and control.

[dorgo]

I agree, but I think the discussion is not about luck vs skill.

Imagine a poker tournament. The winner is determined by a combination of luck and skill. But somebody who didn't play had no chance to win.