I've read this thought experiment somewhere -- imagine, you're locked in a cell and are given a set of lockpics, and you are told you have to pick the lock of the door and get out, or in 1 minute a neurotoxin is released that will kill you.
You have no idea how to pick locks, but you try anyway and you manage to open the lock in 10 seconds.
You are asked how tough do you think the lock was?
You reply "it was really easy, I have no idea how to do it, yet I did it in 10 seconds, easy!".
What you don't know is there were also another 1 trillion cells and you're the lone survivor -- the lock was incredibly hard to pick, with a 1 in a trillion chance of success, but to you, the survivor, without external information it seemed really easy, you were just incredibly lucky.
I've read this thought experiment somewhere -- imagine, you're locked in a cell and are given a set of lockpics, and you are told you have to pick the lock of the door and get out, or in 1 minute a neurotoxin is released that will kill you.
You have no idea how to pick locks, but you try anyway and you manage to open the lock in 10 seconds.
You are asked how tough do you think the lock was?
You reply "it was really easy, I have no idea how to do it, yet I did it in 10 seconds, easy!".
What you don't know is there were also another 1 trillion cells and you're the lone survivor -- the lock was incredibly hard to pick, with a 1 in a trillion chance of success, but to you, the survivor, without external information it seemed really easy, you were just incredibly lucky.