[jcampbell1]

The veterinary science in the corporate meat/dairy business is better at disease management than the CDC. Vaccines are developed in a matter of weeks. Quarantining animals and employees is completely enforced. Culling is possible. I wouldn’t be scared. A lot of smart people are going to make sure you have real ice cream. Do you worry that some disease is going to kill off all the elite marathon runners? Not much genetic diversity there either. Genetic diversity just isn’t that important for survival with modern medicine.

[baroffoos]

Pretty much. The one tool that is available to farmers is the fact that they can just kill huge amounts of animals to wipe out an illness quickly.

[ci5er]

That tool is available at policy-level to other species too; they just don't like to talk about it.

[beambot]

So... How do account for the swine problem in Asia?

Disease can still have tremendous global impact.

[jcampbell1]

About 2/3rds of China’s pork production is not modern. Too many humans involved and they roll out vaccines in 6 months rather than 3 weeks. For now it is just slow and uncoordinated problem solving.

[beambot]

Right. Everything you said about food supply resiliency only applies to modern production in the US. To be fair: that's the topic of the article. But it is inapplicable to 2/3rds of the world's population -- where disease & monoculture are huge threats to global food supply.

[jcampbell1]

China’s agtech is modernizing, and the Americas and Europe is already modern. We divert enough calories for 1 billion people into biofuels. The only realistic thing that will cause a famine is a breakdown in global trade/markets. I think you are being overly dramatic about the disease threat. I am not quite sure why you think genetic diversity within a species is so important. What is important is to have species diversity and trade to avoid potato famines.

[est31]

That's what trade is for. Trump just sold lots of pork to China. Admittedly not all places are as integrated into the world economy as China though, so not everyone can afford food, but aid programs are usually well funded and effective. Right now, the only places where people are starving are ones where aid programs don't have access e.g. because of war.

[barry-cotter]

And terrible enforcement and political incentives due to decades of underinvesting in veterinary and agricultural supervision.

> Why did African swine fever spread so fast in China?

> Systemic problems in China may have accelerated the spread of African swine fever, a dangerous pig virus that has no cure or vaccine. According to an investigative piece by Chinese business portal Caixin last month, divergent interests of central and local officials, money worries and "political tasks" created incentives to hide disease reports. Lacking reliable information, farmers panicked and liquidated herds when they heard rumors of disease in their neighborhood. Big regional price differences due to localized pig liquidations and quarantines created strong incentives to truck pigs and pathogens around the country. Traders flouting bans easily evaded authorities--and were often abetted by corrupt veterinary officials who sold fraudulent health certificates and ear tags.

http://dimsums.blogspot.com/2019/08/why-did-african-swine-fe...

[paganel]

Raising cows was still a pretty modern thing in the UK in the ‘80s and ‘90s but nevertheless they got hit hard by the Mad Cow Disease.

[Nasrudith]

That was a prion disease. They were actively being stupid to try to save a quid and are still being punished in the markets for it.

It is like putting crocodiles in hotel rooms up an elevator or a foot high stack of stairs - too steep for them to climb on their own. If crocodiles eat people then it is clearly the fault of the people who put crocodiles in the hotel rooms in the first place because they couldn't get there on their own as they are aquatic ground clingers.

[dehrmann]

It's a lot easier when you can cull and try experimental vaccines. So "better" is an interesting word choice, there.