[portillo]

My PhD research is on how to use space and aerial networks to serve the unconnected and undeserved. I have been studying these networks (and things like Google's loon, mmwave, etc) for the last 4 years. I have simulated these networks in detail, assessed their capabilities, and ran a lot of financials myself.

According to my analyses, there needs to be a disruptive change in how we receive broadband Internet to close the business case (that's why I keep talking about Displacing ISPs). The unconnected and undeserved broadband market plays great in the US and Canada, but in the rest of the world, there is simply not such a market. At best, you are going to try to provide backhauk for a cell phone network or some other kind of access point. The whole 3B of unconnected people rethoric is very slim. Those people can afford to pay very little every month for connectivity, so it's very hard to make money out of it (even to offset your marginal costs).

In terms of performance, there are diminishing returns on each extra satellite that you launch. The ones already up there are already satisfying a lot of the demand, so each newly launched satellite is active for a shorter and shorter percentage of time.

Starlink is a (in my opinion) very oversized system. I do not think they will launch the full 4,409 constellation (as it stands today), and I am pretty confident they will not launch a 30,000 satellite constellation.

Finally, LEO networks are not the most cost effective space networks. GEO HTS and MEO networks have lower CAPEX/GB.