It was true in the 1980s, but there are a few caveats with it:
1.) It measures the chance that a given marriage will end in divorce, not the chance that a given person will get divorced (which was closer to 40%). The stat is skewed upwards by a few serial divorcers: 60% of second marriages end in divorce, and 73% of third marriages. [1]
2.) The divorce rate has fallen: Millenials are 18% less likely to get divorced than Baby Boomers are (largely because they're less likely to get married in the first place unless they're in a stable relationship). [2]
3.) It's heavily class-based. College educated professionals have only a ~20% chance of getting divorced, while unskilled blue-collar laborers have a ~50% chance of getting divorced. [3]
1.) It measures the chance that a given marriage will end in divorce, not the chance that a given person will get divorced (which was closer to 40%). The stat is skewed upwards by a few serial divorcers: 60% of second marriages end in divorce, and 73% of third marriages. [1]
2.) The divorce rate has fallen: Millenials are 18% less likely to get divorced than Baby Boomers are (largely because they're less likely to get married in the first place unless they're in a stable relationship). [2]
3.) It's heavily class-based. College educated professionals have only a ~20% chance of getting divorced, while unskilled blue-collar laborers have a ~50% chance of getting divorced. [3]
[1] https://www.wf-lawyers.com/divorce-statistics-and-facts/
[2] https://time.com/5434949/divorce-rate-children-marriage-bene...
[3] https://qz.com/1069806/the-highest-and-lowest-divorce-rates-...