| Hoping on the analogy train (knowing full well that all our analogies will be somewhat imperfect because this tech is unprecedented). I don't think it's like a stock split or a dividend. I think a hard fork is most like a company breaking itself apart (like eBay/PayPal into, well, eBay and PayPal). In the case of eBay/PayPal, each holder of the eBay stock also got PayPal stock 1:1, just like in a hard fork. I did some quick research into this and found that the issuance of PayPal stock was NOT a taxable event: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1633917/000119312515... The relevant quote: "The separation will provide current eBay stockholders with equity ownership in both eBay and PayPal. We expect that the distribution of PayPal common stock will be tax-free, for U.S. federal income tax purposes, to eBay stockholders." The reason this is similar to a hard fork is that, in theory, the two chains will splinter their hash power, their usage, and at the time, no REAL value is being transferred/created because of the fork (in theory). There is, of course, the abstract concept that I'm calling "anti-synergy": when two groups are suffering being together and there is more global value in the world when they're apart. |